As is often the case with the first winter weather of the year, a wide range of scenarios are illustrated by the forecast models. Temperatures are forecast to be right around freezing. A few degrees difference could change entirely what our outcome will be. The most likely forecast is reflected in the graphics and text forecast below. The summary is wet snow onset between 5 and 7am, with accumulation of up to 2 inches likely. The areas north of I-70 and west of the Catoctin ridgeline in the Middletown valley have the chance to receive the greatest accumulation.
Detailed Forecast
Tonight
A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 4pm, then freezing rain and sleet. High near 33. Northeast wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Rain before 1am, then rain, snow, and sleet. Low around 33. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. West wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind 5 to 7 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 45.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 45.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.